A new international study has warned that glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya could lose up to 75 per cent of their ice by the end of this century if the Earth's temperature rises by 2 degrees Celsius. This massive glacier loss could affect the rivers that provide water to over 2 billion people living across Asia.

The study was published in the journal Science. It explains that the melting of glaciers is one of the biggest dangers from climate change, especially for people living in areas that depend on glaciers for water.

If countries manage to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, around 40 to 45 per cent of glacier ice in the Himalayas and the Caucasus could still be preserved. This 1.5°C target was set under the 2015 Paris Agreement, where countries agreed to take serious steps to stop global temperatures from rising too much.

The study found that if the Earth warms by 2.7 degrees Celsius — which is likely to happen if today’s climate policies continue — then only about one-quarter of glacier ice will be left worldwide by the year 2100.

Where will glacier ice disappear the fastest?

Some of the world’s most populated and visited mountain regions, like the European Alps, the Rockies in the US and Canada, and Iceland, will be among the worst hit. At 2°C warming, these areas could lose nearly all of their glacier ice, with only 10-15 per cent remaining compared to 2020 levels.

Scandinavia may face an even worse future, with no glacier ice left at all if temperatures reach 2 degrees Celsius.

The study says that even if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, only about 20–30 per cent of the ice in these four most vulnerable regions will remain. But globally, 54 per cent of present-day glacier ice could be preserved if the world reaches the 1.5°C target.

The glaciers melt rapidly at first and then continue melting slowly for hundreds of years. This happens even if temperatures do not rise anymore, showing how long-lasting the damage from current climate change can be.

"Our study makes it painfully clear that every fraction of a degree matters," said co-lead author Dr Harry Zekollari from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel. "The choices we make today will resonate for centuries, determining how much of our glaciers can be preserved."

Global concern as leaders meet in Tajikistan

This study has come at a time when the world is paying more attention to the issue of melting glaciers. On Friday, leaders from over 50 countries gathered in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, for the first-ever United Nations conference on glaciers. Among them, 30 countries were represented at the ministerial level or higher.

Speaking at the conference, Asian Development Bank Vice-President Yingming Yang said, "Melting glaciers threaten lives on an unprecedented scale, including the livelihoods of more than 2 billion people in Asia. Switching to clean energy to cut the release of planet-warming emissions remains the most effective way of slowing glacial melt."

"At the same time, it is essential to mobilise financing to help the most vulnerable adapt to a future of more floods, droughts, and rising sea levels across Asia and the Pacific," he added.

To prepare this detailed report, 21 scientists from 10 countries used eight different glacier models to calculate possible ice loss. They studied over 200,000 glaciers around the world and tested various global temperature scenarios.

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