The Caspian Sea, the largest saltwater lake in the world, is shrinking quickly, causing major concerns for trade, human activities, and the ecosystem. Azerbaijan has raised alarms over disruptions to oil shipments, port operations, and the increasing harm to marine life.

Sea levels have dropped by 0.93 metres over the past five years, 1.5 metres in the last ten years, and 2.5 metres in the last three decades. Currently, water levels are falling about 20 to 30 centimetres each year, raising fears of serious long-term effects on both the environment and the economy.

The Caspian Sea touches Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan. It provides oil, gas, and livelihoods for millions. Over 10 million people depend on the sea for fishing, trade, and farming, including around 4 million along Azerbaijan’s coast and 15 million across the region.

Economic impacts are already visible. Oil cargo transported dropped to 810,000 tonnes in the first half of 2025, compared with 880,000 tonnes in the same period last year.

The ecological damage is severe. The sturgeon, known as the world’s largest living fossil fish, is losing nearly 45% of its summer and autumn habitats due to shrinking waters. Caspian seals are also under threat. “With a 5-metre drop in sea levels, seals lose up to 81% of their breeding sites. At 10 metres, they are almost entirely deprived of suitable grounds,” said Hajiyev, an Azerbaijani official.

Experts say climate change is partly to blame, but Azerbaijan also blames Russia for building dams on the Volga River, which provides 80% of the Caspian’s inflow. Fossil fuel extraction in the region adds to global warming and accelerates evaporation. Reduced river inflows disturb the natural water layers, raise surface temperatures, and worsen water loss.

The situation resembles the Aral Sea, once one of the largest inland lakes, which has mostly disappeared due to human actions. Experts say reducing fossil fuel use, switching to renewable energy, and following sustainable practices are vital to slow the decline.

Recently, Russia and Azerbaijan agreed to work together on a joint programme, expected to be approved in September, to monitor and protect the Caspian Sea. If successful, these steps could help preserve the sea for future generations.

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