The Delhi Assembly elections for 2025 ended on Wednesday at 6:00 PM, after which the whole process of voting came to an end, and soon after the elections, the polls were out which created a high level of expectations. The polling percentage reached up to 57.7% by 5:00 PM, and in this context also, it has all the potential to be yet another interesting political race.

What do exit polls tell us?

Exit polls provide a snapshot at the earliest available point of public opinion as citizens exit polling stations. They help predict the kind of election outcomes likely to come. The polls are widely tracked by the media and political commentators, but most importantly, are not always that accurate. Key variables such as sample size and selection and honest response can change the accuracy scale.

Key players in exit poll 2025?

The race between AAP, Bharatiya Janata Party, and Congress is supposed to be in three-way in this Delhi election. Past exit polls at Delhi have remained a mixed bag so far, largely in terms of the scale of victories.

Which were the successful exit polls in the recent past?

The 2015 Delhi elections witnessed a massive mismatch between the exit polls and the outcome. When six major exit polls had predicted a modest 45 for AAP, the party scored an unexpected victory of 67 seats. BJP, on the other hand, could only smile while winning three, while Congress won no seats at all.

As for 2020, exit polls have improved but still failed to estimate AAP's win. Predictions were that AAP would win 54 seats, while it won 62. The closest prediction was through the India Today-Axis My India, which estimated AAP would win between 59-68 seats and BJP would win between 2-11 seats.

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Why do exit polls go wrong?

Despite improvements over the years, exit polls continue to face challenges. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, for example, many exit polls predicted a sweeping victory for a BJP-led coalition, estimating more than 350 seats, but the party only managed 293. Similarly, last year’s Haryana elections saw exit polls predict a Congress win, which ultimately didn’t materialize. These gaps show common issues such as limited sample sizes and biases from non-response or selective participation.

2025 Delhi Assembly Elections: Exit polls

As the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections near their end, all eyes are on February 8, the day when the votes will be counted. 

Different polling agencies provided varied projections, with most favoring the BJP-led alliance. Here are some key forecasts:

  • Chanakya Strategies: BJP and allies 39-44 seats, AAP 25-28 seats, Congress 2-3 seats.

  • JVC: BJP and allies 39-45 seats, AAP 22-31 seats, Congress 0-2 seats.

  • DV Research: BJP and allies 36-44 seats, AAP 26-34 seats, Congress 0 seats.

  • Matrix: BJP 35-40 seats, AAP 32-37 seats, Congress 0-1 seat.

  • P-Marq: BJP and allies 39-49 seats, AAP 21-31 seats, Congress 0-1 seat.

  • People’s Insight: BJP and allies 40-44 seats, AAP 25-29 seats, Congress 0-2 seats.

  • People's Pulse: BJP and allies 51-60 seats, AAP 10-19 seats, Congress 0 seats.

  • Poll Diary: BJP and allies 42-50 seats, AAP 18-25 seats, Congress 0-2 seats.

On the other hand, two agencies, Mind Brink and WeePreside, predicted an AAP victory:

  • Mind Brink: AAP 44-49 seats, BJP 21-25 seats, Congress 0-1 seat.

  • WeePreside: AAP 46-52 seats, BJP 18-23 seats, Congress 0-1 seat.

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