US revises nuclear strategy to counter China’s expanding arsenal

The United States has updated its highly classified nuclear strategy in response to China’s growing nuclear capabilities and potential alliances with Russia and other countries, as reported by The New York Times on Tuesday, August 20. Vipin Narang, an M.I.T nuclear strategist from the Pentagon said “The president recently issued updated nuclear-weapons employment guidance to account for multiple nuclear-armed adversaries.” The revised “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” which is updated every four years, remains restricted to a select group of administration officials due to its sensitive nature. 

This document, which details the U.S. response to a nuclear attack, is not fully accessible even to members of Congress. According to the report, President Biden approved the revised strategy in March.The revised guidance now explicitly addresses deterrence strategies aimed at countering “China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal,” marking a significant shift, according to The New York Times. 

Additionally, it considers the potential for coordinated nuclear attacks involving China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. In response to the report by The Times, the White House issued a brief statement noting that the review of the Nuclear Employment Guidance “in no way secret … [and] is not a response to any single entity, country nor threat.”

China’s nuclear capabilities have increasingly drawn global scrutiny from policymakers and researchers. In June, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute revealed that China had increased its nuclear arsenal by 90 warheads, bringing its total to 500 as of January.

The Biden administration’s strategy intensifies its focus on China’s nuclear growth, aligning with Pentagon projections that China’s nuclear arsenal could reach 1,000 warheads by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035—figures comparable to the current arsenals of the United States and Russia. However, officials note that Beijing seems to be progressing faster than anticipated, as it has already started deploying nuclear missiles in new silo fields first identified by commercial satellites three years ago.

Mallory Stewart, the assistant secretary for arms control, deterrence and stability at the State Department said “ Beijing seems to be taking a page out of Russia’s playbook that, until we address tensions and challenges in our bilateral relationship, they will choose not to continue our arms control, risk reduction and nonproliferation conversations.”

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