The United States and Russia recently held a high-level meeting in Riyadh to discuss ending the war in Ukraine and improving diplomatic and economic relations. The meeting took place as the conflict approaches its third anniversary.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov confirmed the discussions and shared the key outcomes. Rubio told the Associated Press (AP) that both countries have agreed to work on three main goals: restoring embassy staffing, creating a high-level team for Ukraine peace talks, and exploring economic cooperation. Lavrov described the conversation as “very useful,” stating, “We not only listened but also heard each other.”

However, Ukraine was not present at the meeting, which is a notable shift in US policy under President Donald Trump. Previously, Ukraine was always included in such discussions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has opposed the outcome of the meeting, as Ukraine was not part of the negotiations.

What Donald Trump said

After the meeting, Donald Trump made a statement saying that Russia wants to stop the “barbarianism” in Ukraine. He expressed concern over the high number of casualties, stating, “Soldiers are being killed by thousands on a weekly basis. Apart from Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, a lot of Koreans have been killed. We want to end it.”

Trump also blamed Ukraine for not ending the war sooner, saying, “Today I heard, ‘Oh, well, we weren’t invited.’ Well, you've been there for three years. You should have ended it three years…You should have never started it. You could have made a deal.”

He hinted at a possible meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin later this month, although no official date has been announced.

Background of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

The war began on February 24, 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, tensions between the two countries go back many years.

Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until its disintegration in 1991. After gaining independence, Ukraine struggled to maintain peaceful relations with Russia. Russia has long tried to keep Ukraine under its influence.

In 2014, fighting broke out in eastern Ukraine when groups in the Donetsk region wanted to break away from Ukraine. At the same time, Russia took control of Crimea, a part of Ukraine, which many countries saw as illegal. This made Russia stronger in the sea and created more problems between Russia and Western countries like the US and the European Union (EU). Since then, the US and the EU have promised to support Ukraine and protect its borders.

Why Ukraine is important to Russia

Ukraine is very important to Russia for many reasons. Both countries have a long history together, sharing similar cultures and languages. Before the Soviet Union broke apart, Ukraine was the second-most powerful country after Russia. It has a strong industry and defence sector, which has been useful to Russia. Additionally, Ukraine gives Russia access to the Black Sea, which is important for trade and military purposes.

Reasons behind Russian aggression

Russia’s reasons for attacking Ukraine are both economic and strategic:

Economic factors

Russia wanted Ukraine to join the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC), a free trade agreement formed in 2015. Ukraine, with its advanced industries and agriculture, was an important part of this plan. However, Ukraine refused to join, which frustrated Russia.

Geopolitical and strategic factors

  • Russia views NATO’s expansion as a threat to its security. NATO, led by the US, has expanded eastward and increased its military presence near Russia.
  • The US and NATO have placed missile defence systems in Eastern Europe, including Poland and the Czech Republic, to counter Russian military power.

What Russia wants

Russia has made several demands regarding NATO and Ukraine:

  • Russia wants NATO to stop expanding, especially in countries like Ukraine and Georgia, which share its borders.
  • Russia demands NATO reduce its military presence to 1990s levels and prohibit intermediate-range missile deployments.
  • Russia wants NATO to stop military cooperation with Ukraine and former Soviet republics.

The West’s response

The United States and other Western countries strongly oppose Russia’s actions. The US has made it clear that NATO can still accept new members, including Ukraine. It is also providing weapons and training to help Ukraine defend itself. Germany has warned Russia that it will stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project if Russia continues its aggression. Additionally, the US has threatened to impose economic penalties on Russia if it does not step back.

Impact on India

India is in a tricky position in this crisis because it has strong ties with both Russia and the West. India depends on Russia for military supplies, so it cannot fully support the West against Russia. At the same time, the US has warned that India could face sanctions under CAATSA for buying Russian weapons, like the S-400 missile system. However, if the US and Russia reach an agreement, Russia might shift its focus away from China, giving India a chance to strengthen its relationship with Russia. Additionally, the conflict creates safety concerns for Indian students and expatriates living in the region.

India’s stand on the conflict

India has chosen to stay neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, urging for a peaceful resolution through diplomatic talks. In 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea, India did not vote against Russia at the UN General Assembly. Again in 2020, India voted against a Ukraine-backed UN resolution that criticised Russia for human rights violations. While India acknowledges the ongoing crisis, it avoids taking a direct stance against either side, maintaining a balanced approach in its foreign policy.

Current situation

The recent meeting in Riyadh signals a possible shift in the US approach to the war. However, with Ukraine excluded from discussions, tensions remain high. Ukraine's refusal to recognise the meeting’s outcomes adds to the uncertainty.

As the war nears its third anniversary, world leaders must act quickly to find a peaceful solution. The involvement of major powers like the US and Russia will be crucial in shaping the future of Ukraine and global stability.

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