UN to predict major population decline in China by the end of the century

The United Nations has raised the alarm about population decline in China, predicting a potential drop of more than half by the century’s end. According to the UN’s 2024 World Population Prospects report, China might see its population shrink by 786 million between 2024 and 2054, bringing it back to a size last seen in the late 1950s.

In 2023, population decline in China became a pressing concern as the country’s population fell for the second consecutive year. With the total population reaching 1.4097 billion, only 9.02 million births were recorded, marking the lowest number since 1949. This sharp decline highlights a significant demographic challenge for China, which is now grappling with the consequences of a shrinking population.

In response to this alarming trend, Beijing has established a comprehensive data-monitoring system aimed at tackling the issue. The government’s initiatives are designed to analyze and address the factors contributing to the declining birth rate. Economists are warning that the consequences of this population decline in China could be severe. With fewer workers entering the labor force and a growing number of retirees, there will be increased pressure on government revenues and a rise in social service costs.

Factors Contributing to the Population Decline in China

The UN’s 2024 World Population Prospects report attributes China’s demographic challenges to several key factors. These include a decrease in the number of women of childbearing age, delayed marriages, and a growing number of people choosing not to have children. The report highlights that China will likely experience the largest absolute population loss of 204 million between 2024 and 2054. This significant reduction places China in a precarious position, with implications for its economic and social stability.

Japan and Russia are also expected to see substantial population declines, with anticipated losses of 21 million and 10 million people, respectively. However, China’s population decline is projected to be the most severe, reflecting broader global concerns about demographic shifts.

Despite some experts predicting a potential short-term increase in births due to the relaxation of coronavirus pandemic restrictions and new pronatalist policies, the long-term outlook remains grim. The UN report underscores that the size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be 6 percent smaller, or about 700 million people fewer, than previously anticipated. This downward revision is largely attributed to unexpectedly low fertility rates in major countries, with China at the forefront of this trend.

The report’s findings underscore the urgency for China to implement effective strategies to mitigate the effects of its population decline. Policymakers are tasked with addressing the root causes of the declining birth rate and finding ways to balance demographic shifts to ensure long-term stability and growth.

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