More than 77% of the Earth’s land experienced drier conditions in the three decades leading up to 2020 compared to the previous 30 years, according to a report by the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).

The findings, released on December 9, 2024, at the 16th UNCCD conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, pointed out the growing threat of aridification and its impact on billions of people.

Drylands are expanding faster than ever

According to the report, this period saw the expansion of global drylands by almost 4.3 million square kilometers. To put it in perspective, the additional drylands are nearly a third larger than India and now cover over 40% of the Earth's land surface.

If the efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions are not achieved, the situation may worsen. The report claims that another 3% of the world's humid areas are in danger of turning into drylands at the end of this century.

Increasing impact on populations

It is not just the land. The population of people living in drylands has doubled to 2.3 billion in the past 30 years and is continuing to increase. In the worst scenario, as many as 5 billion people are likely to be living in drylands by 2100.

“These billions of people face even greater threats to their lives and livelihoods from climate-related increases in aridification and desertification,” the report stated.

Which regions are at risk?

Regions experiencing the most severe drying trends include 96% of Europe, parts of the western United States, Brazil, Asia, and central Africa.

South Sudan and Tanzania have the largest share of land transitioning to drylands.

China had the greatest net area gain from non-drylands to drylands.

Asia and Africa continue to suffer the most, as half of the world's dryland population lives there. The most populated drylands can be found in California, Egypt, Pakistan, India, and northeastern China.

If emissions continue to be high, dryland expansion is expected in several critical areas: the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northeastern Brazil, and southern Australia. The entire Mediterranean region, the Black Sea coast, and large parts of southern Africa are also at risk.

Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD Executive Secretary, emphasized that this crisis is irreversible. “This analysis finally dispels an uncertainty that has long surrounded global drying trends. For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe,” he said.

Unlike droughts, which are only temporary, aridification is a permanent change. “Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost,” Mr. Thiaw explained.

“The drier climates now affecting vast areas across the globe will not return to how they were, and this change is redefining life on Earth,” he added.

The findings serve as a reminder of the urgency to address climate change and curb greenhouse gas emissions. As drylands expand and billions of lives hang in the balance, the time for global action has never been more critical.