Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended his congratulations to the recently elected President of Maldives, Mohammed Muizzu, over the weekend. However, given the former opposition leader's proclivity towards China, there's widespread speculation that the diplomatic and political influence India previously held in Maldives might now become a thing of history.

“There is no doubt that Muizzu has leanings towards China, but we doubt if he would be able to, or rather be interested in, completely sidelining his association with India. That said, China and its presence in Maldives will be in the ascendant,” said a political analyst from Male, wishing anonymity. Muizzu won the Maldivian presidential poll defeating incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, securing 54 per cent votes against the latter’s 46 per cent.

During his five-year term, former President Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party was known for his friendly stance towards India, having succeeded former President Abdulla Yameen (2013-18). In contrast, when Muizzu's Progressive Party of Maldives was previously in power, it heavily relied on Chinese loans for the nation. His administration faced criticism for suppressing dissent. While Solih's presidency was marked by peace and prosperity, the same optimism cannot be extended to Muizzu due to his association with Yameen.

Yameen, presently serving an 11-year prison term on corruption charges, was not only pro-China but also notably anti-India. Even from behind bars, he continued to fuel 'India out' campaigns. Yameen, who served as Muizzu's mentor, makes it likely that his release is imminent now that Muizzu is in power.

India has made substantial investments in Maldives, actively participating in the country's infrastructure development projects. Through its Neighbourhood First policy, India has provided grants in aid and loans. Despite these efforts, there have been periodic targeted hate attacks, including incidents involving Indian migrant workers and disruptions during last year's Yoga Day celebrations.

India forged diplomatic relations with Maldives following its independence from British rule in 1965. India stood among the initial nations to recognize Maldives after its independence, fostering strong strategic and military ties between the two countries.

“We hope that things remain normal between India and Maldives. Though we must admit that once Yameen is out, there is bound to be a hardening of stance against India,” said a source, adding that many who voted for Muizzu were keen to see India’s military presence reduce in the country.

During his five-year term, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who was succeeded by Mohamed Muizzu, maintained a friendly relationship with India. Conversely, when Muizzu's party held power previously, it heavily relied on significant loans from China for the Maldives. While Solih's presidency was marked by peace, the same optimism cannot be extended to Muizzu due to his connection with Yameen, who had strong anti-India sentiments.

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