China is scaling up its nuclear capabilities faster than any other country in the world. With this speed the country is expected to surpass both the USA and Russia in (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) ICBM count in a decade.

According to the annual yearbook released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on Monday, China's nuclear arsenal has increased from 410 warheads to 500 as of January 2024. The report talks about China's growing nuclear capabilities. Potentially, China's 238 ICBM count is expected to overtake the US 800 and Russia's 1,244 within a decade.

ICBM count
Image Source: Wikipedia

However, the overall nuclear arsenal of China is comparatively very low than those of the US (with 5,044 warheads) and Russia (5,580 warheads).

"China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country," Hans Kristensen, an associate senior fellow with SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Program, said in a statement. "But in nearly all of the nuclear-armed states there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces," he added.

The report suggested that the overall global nuclear stockpile comprised around 12,121 warheads, with the two nuclear powers the USA and Russia, collectively owning nearly 90 per cent of the warhead. The report highlighted that around 9,585 of these warheads are operational, while the remaining are retired Cold War-era weapons pending dismantlement.

SIPRI also highlighted little growth in Russia’s deployed warheads, rising from 1,674 to 1,710 in the past year.

“While the global total of nuclear warheads continues to fall as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, regrettably we continue to see year-on-year increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads,” Dan Smith, SIPRI’s director stated.

“This trend seems likely to continue and probably accelerate in the coming years and is extremely concerning," he further added.

As per reports, China is building approximately 350 new silos for its land-based ballistic missiles. If each silo accommodates a single missile warhead, China could have about 650 warheads on its ICBMs in a decade. However, if these silos house missiles equipped with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), the number of warheads on China's ICBMs could surpass 1,200.

According to Kristensen, China's expansion of ICBMs could be linked to concerns about United States' first-strike capabilities and could also be an attempt to counter American missile defence systems. However, China has maintained secrecy regarding its nuclear arsenal.

SIPRI reported that 346 of China’s warheads were allocated to land-based ballistic missiles, which is 70 per cent of its total nuclear force. The air force possessed 20 warheads, while nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines held 72 warheads. An additional 62 warheads were stored for non-operational missiles.

“The Chinese navy conducts ‘near-continuous at-sea deterrence patrols,’ which appears to imply the submarine at sea is carrying nuclear-armed missiles. Each submarine can carry up to 12 ballistic missiles that we assume is each equipped with one nuclear warhead," Kristensen pointed.

He suggested that the growing nuclear capabilities on both sides might lead the US to enhance its nuclear presence in the Indo-Pacific, a move that goes against the interests of both countries

You might also be interested in - Adani-EDGE seals landmark defence deal for drones, missiles, and cyber-tech