Global warming rising by 0.26°C every decade: Report

According to the second annual Indicators of Global Climate Change Report, human-caused global warming is accelerating at a rate of 0.26°C per decade, the fastest rate on record. The report, compiled by more than 50 climate scientists at the University of Leeds, reveals that human-induced warming has reached 1.19°C over the last decade (2014-2023), up from 1.14°C in the previous decade (2013-2022) as stated in last year’s report.

The human-induced warming reached 1.3°C last year, with a total of 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 average in the multi-data set mean used in the study. The report mentioned that natural climate variability, including El Niño, also contributed to the record temperatures in 2023. The analysis indicates that the remaining carbon budget, which represents how much carbon dioxide can be emitted before reaching 1.5°C of global warming, is approximately 200 gigatonnes (billion tonnes), equivalent to about five years’ worth of current emissions.

In 2020, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculated the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C to be in the range of 300 to 900 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, with a central estimate of 500. However, with ongoing CO2 emissions and global warming, by the beginning of 2024, the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C had decreased to 100 to 450 gigatonnes, with a central estimate of 200, as stated in the report.

The director of the University of Leeds Priestley Centre for Climate Futures, Piers Forster, stated that their analysis indicates that the level of global warming caused by human activities has continued to rise in the past year, despite efforts to slow down the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Forster emphasized that global temperatures are increasing at an alarming rate and that their analysis aims to monitor the long-term trends resulting from human actions.

Forster explained that observed temperatures are influenced by this long-term trend, with shorter-term natural variations playing a role. He mentioned that last year, when temperature records were broken, these natural factors temporarily contributed around 10% to the overall warming trend.

These findings were presented during the Bonn Climate Conference (June 3 to June 13), which is expected to shape the discussions on climate negotiations this year and introduce talks on establishing a new financial target to replace the current $100 billion per year goal. The new financial objective aims to allocate more funds towards critical climate actions in developing nations.

At the Bonn Climate Conference, UN climate chief Simon Stiell warned that without international cooperation convened by the UN, we could be on track for up to a 5-degree global temperature increase, which could be catastrophic for most of humanity. Stiell mentioned that we are currently heading towards approximately 2.7 degrees of warming, which is still alarmingly high. Achieving our shared goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees this century will require significant effort, but we should be encouraged that we are nearing the halfway mark.

Professor Joeri Rogelj from Imperial College London highlighted that the continuous release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, combined with the significant warming observed in the past year, has reduced the remaining budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Rogelj emphasized that urgent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over the next 5 to 10 years are crucial to prevent an additional quarter-degree of warming by 2035. Global warming currently stands at 1.3°C, underscoring the importance of immediate action to curb emissions.

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