According to Atlas Intel's most recent poll, Donald Trump appears to be winning the race in the country's seven swing states, which have unpredictable political preferences in each Presidential election.
With only one day to the presidential election, fresh polling shows six of the seven battleground states inside the margin of error - the only one with a clear leader is Arizona, where former President Donald Trump leads by four points.
Poll results
Nearly 49% of participants said they would vote for Trump in upcoming elections as the Republicans hold a 1.8% lead over Democrat Kamala Harris.
The survey, conducted over the first two days of November, comprised roughly 2,500 probable voters in the United States, the majority of whom were women.
As the 2024 Presidential Election approaches its conclusion, the focus is on swing states, or battleground states, which are the primary deciding factors in the US presidential election.
Another survey of swing states found that the Republican nominee is favoured to win in all of them: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In Arizona, Trump has a significant edge – 51.9% to 45.1% over Harris.
In Nevada, 51.4% chose Trump and 45.9% chose Harris when asked who they would vote for in the upcoming presidential elections.
In North Carolina, Trump leads by 50.4%, with Harris receiving 46.8% of the vote.
The results in Georgia and North Carolina are especially important because they are Trump's second and third-best performing battleground states in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregate, following Arizona.
RCP favours Trump in its no-tossup battleground state map, giving him a tiny advantage in all but Wisconsin and Michigan.
What do the experts say?
Several notable experts, including polling data guru Nate Silver, have recently raised concerns about polls, claiming that some pollsters may be "herding" their results by making judgements to portray a close race in order to avoid being an outlier.
Experts like as Silver argue that polling findings are significantly less variable than would be statistically expected.
Pollsters are eager to avoid a repetition of the 2016 and 2020 elections, when they were widely accused of underestimating Trump's popularity.
Of course, in the 2022 midterm elections, pollsters were accused of overestimating Republican support.
The Des Moines Register newspaper startled the beltway on Saturday with its findings from respected pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, which showed Harris topping Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%.
Iowa is widely viewed as a red state in the presidential race. Trump won by approximately eight points in 2020.
Selz's polls are well-known for their accuracy, with some analysts referring to them as the "gold standard" due to their track record of matching final outcomes.
She has had some misses, notably in the 2024 Republican primary.
The Atlas Intel poll, which was one of the most accurate predictors of the 2020 election results, saw Trump ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In four of those states, Trump exceeded the margin of error.
According to the University of Florida Election Lab, more than 70 million Americans have already voted, with 252 million voting in the 2020 election.
Red states, blue states, and swing states impact the outcome of US presidential elections.
Republicans have consistently won red states since 1980, while Democrats have ruled blue states since 1992. These states are widely viewed as having predictable electoral outcomes.
In contrast, the election results between Republicans and Democrats is frequently extremely close in swing states, with winners winning by razor-thin margins. In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden won Arizona by only 10,000 votes.