US President Donald Trump has once again made the Nobel Peace Prize a central talking point, claiming at the United Nations this week that “everyone” believes he deserves it. He credited himself with ending “seven unendable wars” during his current term.

“In just seven months, I have ended seven unendable wars,” Trump told world leaders, adding, “They said they were unendable, some were going for 31 years, one for 36 years. I ended seven wars, and in all cases they were raging, with countless thousands of people being killed.”

But with the Nobel announcement set for October 10, the gap between Trump’s claims and the views of Nobel historians, the prize committee, and the American public remains wide.

For Trump, the Nobel represents more than recognition; it is a political prize and a badge of international approval. He has repeatedly brought it up, often comparing himself with Barack Obama, who won the prize in 2009. On his social media platform, Trump argued that Obama received it “in 10 seconds” just because of his name.

At the UN General Assembly, Trump linked his Nobel hopes to foreign policy, portraying himself as the only leader capable of bringing peace to Ukraine and Gaza.

Nobel Committee not impressed

The Norwegian Nobel Committee, which has five members appointed by Norway’s parliament, has traditionally resisted lobbying. Deputy leader Asle Toje told Reuters that attempts to influence the committee often backfire, since independence is central to its work.

Nobel historians also argue that Trump’s record clashes with Alfred Nobel’s vision of promoting peace and cooperation. Historian Asle Sveen said Trump’s support for Israel in the Gaza war and his outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin mean “he has no chance to get the Peace Prize at all.”

Nina Graeger, head of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, pointed out that Trump’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization, exit from the Paris climate deal, and trade disputes with allies weakened global cooperation instead of strengthening it.

Past controversial Nobel winners like Henry Kissinger and F.W. de Klerk were still recognised because they took steps to correct past mistakes. Former committee member Henrik Syse explained that those leaders were awarded for acknowledging wrongs and moving toward peace. In contrast, critics argue Trump has shown no such shift.

Public opinion in the US

A Washington Post–Ipsos poll from mid-September shows that 76% of Americans believe Trump does not deserve the Nobel, while just 22% say he does.

Even among Republicans, fewer than half think he should get the award. Among independents, only 14% agree, and among Democrats, the number falls to 3%.

The poll also found that most Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Russia–Ukraine war and his response to the Israel–Gaza conflict.

Who else is in the running?

Attention has shifted to other candidates. Humanitarian groups like the UNHCR, UNICEF, the Red Cross, and Doctors Without Borders are seen as strong contenders.

There is also talk of recognising journalists, after record numbers of reporters were killed worldwide last year, many in Gaza. Organisations such as Reporters Without Borders and the Committee to Protect Journalists are being considered.

With the UN marking its 80th anniversary, institutions like the International Court of Justice or even the UN itself could also be honoured.

Could Trump still turn it around?

Some leaders say the door is not completely closed. French President Emmanuel Macron argued that if Trump managed to secure peace in Gaza, “he would immediately become a contender.” Analyst Nina Graeger added that if he could persuade Putin to end the Ukraine war, the Nobel Committee might reconsider.