A new study has raised serious concerns about the impact of the Trump administration’s decision to drastically cut U.S. foreign aid. According to research published in The Lancet on July 1, over 14 million people, including more than 4.5 million children under five, could die by 2030 as a result of these cuts.

The study comes at a time when global leaders and business figures are meeting in Seville, Spain, for a major United Nations conference focused on rebuilding the struggling global aid sector. However, the United States will not be attending.

Until January this year, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) had been the largest single contributor to humanitarian aid, providing over 40% of global funding. That changed when Donald Trump returned to the White House and reduced support for foreign aid programs.

Just two weeks after Trump’s swearing-in, his then-advisor and the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, boasted, “I put the agency through the woodchipper.”

Researchers at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) led the study, which analyzed health data from 133 countries. The findings suggest that the drop in funding is already having severe consequences.

“For many low- and middle-income countries, the resulting shock would be comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict,” said Davide Rasella, one of the study’s authors.

From 2001 to 2021, USAID’s programs were linked to 91 million lives saved, the research found. Using predictive modeling, the team warned that cutting USAID’s budget by 83%, the amount already announced by the U.S. government, could undo two decades of progress in global health.

The projected death toll includes an estimated 700,000 child deaths each year, totalling 4.5 million under-fives by 2030.

USAID’s efforts were especially effective in reducing child mortality, cutting deaths among under-fives by 32%, according to the study. Overall, countries receiving significant USAID help saw a 15% drop in deaths from all causes.

In regions with strong USAID support, deaths from HIV/AIDS dropped by 65%, while fatalities from malaria and other neglected tropical diseases were cut in half.

After the U.S. slashed its aid, several other major donor countries—including Germany, the United Kingdom, and France- also announced plans to reduce their international aid budgets.

“These aid reductions, particularly in the European Union, could lead to even more deaths in the coming years,” warned Caterina Monti, another co-author of the study.

However, researchers stressed that the bleak predictions are based on current aid commitments. If funding levels improve, the number of avoidable deaths could significantly drop.

Despite the dire numbers, experts believe that reversing course is still possible. “Now is the time to scale up, not scale back,” Rasella said, urging global leaders to rethink their approach to aid.

Before the funding cuts, USAID represented just 0.3% of the U.S. federal budget.

“U.S. citizens contribute about 17 cents per day to USAID, around $64 per year,” said James Macinko of the University of California, Los Angeles.

“I think most people would support continued USAID funding if they knew just how effective such a small contribution can be to saving millions of lives.”

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