A new meta-analysis of research has revealed a disturbing link between intensified rainfall and the catastrophic landslides in Kerala's district of Wayanad, laying the 10% hike in rainfall intensity directly at the door of climate change. The researchers are part of an international team: they belong to India, Sweden, the US, and the UK. According to them, such extreme weather events are likely to increase with the rise in global temperature.

Working within World Weather Attribution, an international research group, the researchers have used advanced climate models adapted for small and geographically complex regions like Wayanad in estimating the impact of human-induced climate change on precipitation patterns. The researchers revealed that rainfall had increased in the area; the rise was estimated to have been four percent for each warming of two-degree Celsius in global temperatures.

Although there were a number of uncertainties in their calculation since it was hard to estimate at present, given the region's topographical features, the general conclusion was consistent with most scientific assertions, which contend that a warmer and moisture-rich atmosphere translates to intensified rain. It aggravates extreme weather conditions that cause landslides, such as the heavy bursts of rain over Wayanad.

intensified rainfall
Image Source: Phys.org

At the background of this environmental crisis, there have been significant changes in land use in the region, for example, extensive quarrying and marked reduction in forest cover, both of which have rendered the terrain more prone to landslides. Wayanad has been placed as well in the list of the most landslidest-affected area along with other districts in the Western Ghats. Environmental degradation and poor land management practices are just some of the issues that have worsened this problem.

Experts from Cochin University also noted that there is an increase in the instability of the local climate system because of the warming of the Arabian Sea, which in turn further builds up these deep and dense cloud systems over Kerala. This meteorological shift is causing freakishly high rainfall within very short periods of time, which again leads to an added risk of abrupt and intense landslides.

The study does not only reiterate the immediate impact of climate change on regional weather patterns but also the need for environmental and land use reforms in regions like Wayanad. This research is a clear reminder of cascading effects due to global warming: it's a call to action focusing on the mitigation of future risks and the affected vulnerable communities across the world.

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