The counting of votes for the Assembly bypolls in five constituencies across four Indian states began on Monday. These bypolls were conducted on June 19 in Gujarat (two seats), Punjab, West Bengal, and Kerala.

This by-election result is being closely watched as it is seen as a test for both the BJP and the INDIA bloc. The results will also show if AAP still has support in Punjab and Gujarat after its recent losses in Delhi.

In Kerala’s Nilambur seat, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has taken the lead. Aryadan Shoukath, the 2016 candidate of the UDF, is ahead. This seat is important for the Congress because it falls within Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s Wayanad constituency. She had also held a roadshow in the area before the vote.

The Nilambur seat was earlier held by PV Anvar, a Left-supported independent MLA. He resigned after differences with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and later joined the Trinamool Congress. In 2021, he had won this seat with just a 2,700-vote margin.

This time, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) has fielded M. Swaraj, while the BJP has put forward Advocate Mohan George.

In Punjab’s Ludhiana West, AAP’s Sanjeev Arora is leading. Arora is a former Rajya Sabha MP and a well-known industrialist. The second position is held by Congress’s Bharat Bhushan Ashu, while BJP’s Jiwan Gupta is trailing behind.

The seat became vacant after the death of sitting AAP MLA Gurpreet Bassi Gogi, who passed away in January due to a self-inflicted bullet injury.

AAP is trying to win back people’s support after its Delhi Assembly election loss. AAP leaders Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, and Atishi all campaigned actively for Arora.

This seat has a long history with Congress. Since its creation in 1977, Congress has won the seat six times, and the Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) has won it twice.

BJP leads in Gujarat, Trinamool strong in Bengal

In Gujarat, the BJP is leading in both Visavadar and Kadi assembly seats.

In Visavadar, BJP’s Kirit Patel, who is also a former district president, is ahead. The AAP has nominated Gopal Italia, who became popular during the 2015 Patidar agitation in the state. Italia is close behind.

This seat has not been won by BJP since 2007. It was vacated after the AAP MLA Bhupendra Bhayani resigned and joined the BJP in 2023. The Congress has fielded Nitin Ranpariya, but he is trailing far behind, making the contest mainly between BJP and AAP.

In Kadi, also in Gujarat, BJP’s Rajendra Chavda is leading. This seat was vacant after the death of BJP MLA Karsan Solanki in February. Kadi is a reserved seat for Scheduled Castes and falls in Mehsana district.

The Congress has fielded Ramesh Chavda, who earlier won the seat in 2012, and the AAP candidate is Jagdish Chavda.

In West Bengal’s Kaliganj seat, Trinamool Congress candidate Alifa Ahmed is leading. She is ahead of Congress’s Kabil Uddin Shaaikh, while BJP’s Ashish Ghosh is also contesting.

This bypoll happened after Alifa’s father, Nasiruddin Ahmed, a Trinamool MLA, passed away in February.

Kaliganj is a mostly rural seat with around 54% Muslim population. It falls in the Nadia district. This bypoll is being seen as an important contest between Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and the BJP, especially before next year’s assembly elections.

What these By-elections mean

These bypolls are being seen as an early test of public opinion before the major Assembly elections in West Bengal and Kerala next year. For the BJP, which is trying to strengthen its hold in states like Gujarat and Bengal, the results are crucial.

For Congress, winning or leading in Nilambur gives it confidence in Kerala. And for the AAP, leading in Ludhiana West gives hope that it still has voter support in Punjab, despite the recent setbacks in Delhi.

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