According to an article published by Down To Earth (DTE), more than 500 of India's 718 districts under the surveillance of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) are currently reporting meteorological drought conditions, ranging from moderately dry to extremely dry.

Experts warned DTE that this might hinder agriculture productivity.

Based on data from IMD's Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), which was collected from August 20, 2023 to September 24, 2023, the conclusions were made. 53 percent of the districts in India were found to be classified as "mildly dry." In the "moderately dry" or "extremely dry" categories were nearly all of Northeast India, several areas of eastern India, Jammu and Kashmir, and a sizable portion of the Southern Peninsula, which ran from Maharashtra, Karnataka, to Andhra Pradesh in the eastern coast.

Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI)

IMD uses SPI, a probabilistic method, to track droughts. Positive values indicate wetter circumstances, whereas negative values indicate drought-like conditions. SPI is a reliable measure for tracking droughts. However, Madhavan Rajeevan, a former secretary at the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, says that it is "tricky to interpret" these figures.

Before publicly announcing a drought, he remarked, “The SPI categories vary from region to region and one also needs to take into account the ground realities prevailing before outwardly declaring a drought."

In contrast to arid regions like the Vidarbha region in Maharashtra, which is already dry and sparse Madhavan claims that relatively dry conditions in the country's wetter regions, like Cherrapunji, won't make much of a difference.

Monsoonal Breaks

A monsoonal break is recognised climatologically when the normalised rainfall anomaly index, or deviation from the long-term rainfall average, exceeds the -1 threshold and lasts for at least three days in the core monsoon zone, which stretches from Gujarat in the west, to West Bengal in the east and is where agricultural activities are rain-fed.

According to Rajeevan, the longer monsoonal breaks in August and the monsoon's spatial and temporal distribution of rain may be the reason why 70% of India is experiencing drought.

“So, even if 53 per cent of the country is mildly dry, we have to see the ground reality,” Rajeevan remarked.

The third-longest monsoonal break in the 21st century actually occurred in August 2023. It lasted from August 7 to August 18, 2023. The extended hiatus caused a 36% deficit in rainfall, making August 2023 the driest month on record in the 123 years of records.

Rajeevan asserts that the distribution of the monsoon of 2023 has been significantly skewed ever since it began.

According to Rajeevan, “In June, we had a 10 per cent deficit, then a 13 per cent excess in July, followed by the driest August ever. Spatially, the drier regions have received more rain compared to the wetter regions. So, the distribution has been highly skewed.” 

Just how serious is the situation?

“The impact of the driest August is definitely palpable now (dry conditions). It is not a good situation. But the situation needs to be assessed from an agricultural perspective (of how alarming the situation is)”, it must have affected the crops.” Rajeevan added.

Crop Weather Watch Group estimates that planting area increased by 33% in 2023 compared to 2022, however this does not necessarily mean that more crops will be produced.

According to journalist and agricultural commodities specialist Rajesh Sharma, with harvesting season still a month away, it would be difficult to predict how the production will pan out for 2023.

But he claimed that, except for soya bean, production of all the agricultural commodities he listed is anticipated to be lower than it was last year based on early indications. Food grains like paddy, oil seeds, groundnuts, and pulses are included in this.

“The cumulative sowing area, when compared to last year, is showing an increase because of three crops — rice, sugarcane and coarse cereals. But that does not mean the production will also increase compared to last year,” Sharma pointed out.

The lack of rainfall in 2023, according to the expert, is the main cause of a decline in crop yield.

While only five states between June 1 and September 25, 2023, have reported having insufficient rainfall, according to IMD's classification of rainfall. Even though all 20 states fall inside IMD's "normal" rainfall category, precipitation in those 20 states was "lower than average."

India has cumulatively reported a 5% deficit compared to the long-term average of 1971-2020.

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