As of November 2024, India's population stands at 145.56 crore. The country continues to be the most populous on the planet and marks another demographic shift, overtaking China's long-standing lead. Alongside this milestone, India is facing a decline in its fertility rate, which brings mixed challenges for its future growth, workforce, and economic stability.

Declining fertility: A global context

The world has experienced a massive change in population dynamics over the past few decades. From 250 crore in 1950, the world's population has now surged past 800 crore. Yet the United Nations reports that the world as a whole is seeing a drop in birth rates, and India's fertility rate has declined sharply from 6.2 children per woman in 1950 to below 2 children per woman in 2024. 

If current trends continue, this rate could cut back to 1.3 by 2050, profoundly reshaping India's demographic landscape. For context, a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is considered the “replacement level,” the threshold needed for a population to remain stable. Falling below this level indicates a shift toward long-term population decline.

The fertility rate will tend to be around 1.8 by 2050 and could go as low as 1.6 by 2100 for the world in general. Consequently, many countries, in this case, India, will face mixed implications on economic growth, stability of the labor market, and welfare systems.

India's population shift: Slower growth, changing priorities

India's population has been growing slowly despite its size currently. In 2021, around 2 crore children were born in the country, but by 2050, this figure might trickle to a mere 1.3 crore. Whereas developing and developed countries are also experiencing a declining trend, countries with low incomes still exhibit a high fertility rate, which does not seem to be much affected by social and economic factors such as late marriage age and career-oriented lifestyles along with easy availability of education and family planning.

A reduced fertility rate is seen in a population that is urbanizing and whose priorities are shifting; many women in India's urban regions seek fewer children, often under pressures from careers and development. This should be ongoing over decades to influence the demographic profile of India.

Benefits of reduced fertility rate

One reason low fertility might give off little cause for concern is a declining fertility rate's association with some attractive benefits, especially in terms of resource management and quality of life. The pressure on scarce resources, water, food, and energy lessen as the rate of population growth slows; it also lets governments spend more intelligently on health care, education, and social services.

In addition to such broader benefits, reduced fertility also brings direct advantages to women, potentially through longer lives and better maternal health outcomes. It has been found that women who have fewer children tend to have better health and lower mortality, which reflects the benefits of reduced reproductive demands.

Also, the lower population will permit additional people's access to resources per capita hence more information in infrastructure investments and projects in sustainable development. This will be more defined economic growth.

Challenges from a decreasing population

However, declining fertility presents significant problems, like the prospect of aging. Where fertility is low, the ratio of young to old changes, and a potential shortfall in labor results because of fewer available young workers to service an increasingly aging and elderly population in India. The effects on India's labor market and social security provisions could be intense if this trend is unchecked.

For example, children in the 0-14 age group have decreased from 36.4 crore in 2001 to 34 crore in 2024, while the population of elderly people has increased by more than twofold, from 6.1 crore in 1991 to 15 crore today. Such a high level of growth of the elderly population will require more resources for healthcare, pensions, and other social welfare; this would raise pressures on systems not yet ready for such demand.

Decline in global fertility rates and consequences

India is a part of the global trend towards lower fertility. Most countries are experiencing declining workforces and bulging elderly populations, and low-income countries are experiencing high birth rates that put a strain on infrastructure, health care, and resources. India presents a picture where a gradually declining fertility rate is purportedly leading to a transformation that could be for the better with improved resource allocation.

The Global Burden of Disease study projects that by 2100, low-income countries will see their share of live births rise to 35% from 18% in 2021. Without fundamental reproductive health policies, these countries are likely to face greater challenges in population control.

For India, the way ahead in this demographic transition is complex. A smaller population is likely to promise better resource distribution and an improved quality of life. However, policymakers need to grapple with both the economic implications of aging society as well as the danger of labor shortages down the line. Strategies could include the promotion of older adults working along with solid investment in healthcare infrastructure and policies that drive inclusive economic growth.

As India copes with its new demographic reality, balanced policies and proactive planning will then be crucial for balancing the opportunities and challenges it presents.