India May heatwaves have become much hotter, with a recent one in May being 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous records.

This increase is due to the El Nino phenomenon combined with escalating concentration of greenhouse gases, according to a study by ClimaMeter, a group of independent climate scientists.

Analyzing the temperatures from 2001-2023 to those from 1979-2001, researchers found that today's heatwaves are significantly warmer, even though precipitation has not changed much. "The temperature changes show that similar events produce temperatures in the present climate at least 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than what they would have been in the past over a large area of the region analyzed. The precipitation changes do not show any significant variations," the analysis read.

Davide Faranda from the French National Centre for Scientific Research stressed the significance of reducing fossil fuel emissions. "ClimaMeter's findings emphasize that heatwaves in India are reaching unbearable temperature thresholds because of fossil fuels burning. There are no technological solutions for adapting Indian metropoles for temperatures approaching 50 degrees Celsius. We should all act now to reduce CO2 emissions and avoid exceeding vital temperature thresholds in large areas of the subtropics."

India May heatwave
Image Source: HerZindagi

Gianmarco Mengaldo from the National University of Singapore expressed how climate change and natural variability interact. "The findings show the complex interplay between natural variability and climate change, with the latter playing an important role in critical synoptic-weather-pattern changes in tropical and subtropical regions that may significantly aggravate heatwaves in the near future," he said.

Globally, extreme weather has been more common due to the combined effects of the 2023-24 El Nino and human-caused climate change. May 2024 was the hottest May ever, and the last twelve months have each broken temperature records, according to the European climate agency Copernicus.

In India, the intense May heatwave hit the northwest and central regions hard, challenging the country's disaster response. Water levels in major reservoirs dropped sharply, and power demand reached a record high of 246 gigawatts due to heavy use of air conditioning. Nearly 25,000 suspected heat stroke cases and 56 heat-related deaths were recorded between March and May, most of them in May.

ClimaMeter's analysis underscores the severe impact of human-driven climate change on India's weather, with late May temperatures reaching a provisional record of 49.1°C in New Delhi and over 45°C in more than 37 cities. This extreme event highlights the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to prevent more such heatwaves in the future.

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