China is planning to construct the world's largest hydropower dam on the eastern rim of the Tibetan Plateau, a move that has raised significant concerns in India. This ambitious project is located at the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River and is expected to generate 300 billion kWh of electricity annually. 

It is going to be a major component of China's 14th Five-Year Plan. However, its strategic location and scale have already created more fears regarding what impact India may face, particularly in waters and regional stability.

Where will the Dam be built?

The dam would be constructed at the bottom of the Yarlung Zangbo River, one that flows into India as Brahmaputra. It plans to be built near where the sharp turn is located toward the region of Arunachal Pradesh, a region already marked by geopolitical tensions.

With a staggering cost of USD 137 billion, this hydropower dam is poised to eclipse China's previous large-scale infrastructure projects, including the famous Three Gorges Dam. 

Touted as the world’s biggest infrastructure venture, it highlights Beijing’s drive for energy and resource dominance.

India's growing concerns

India has raised deep concerns over the project, pointing out multiple potential issues:

  1. Transparency issues: New Delhi has condemned Beijing's secrecy regarding the dam, fearing that it might have hidden motives or unintended consequences.

  2. Flash floods and water scarcity: The dam could interrupt the water flow, leading to flash floods or scarcity of water resources downstream, directly affecting the water supply in India.

  3. Increased dependence on China: The project might make India even more dependent on China for water, thus providing a strategic advantage to Beijing.

  4. Upper riparian control: As the upper riparian state, China's control over water flow may limit the availability of water to India, which can raise alarm over water security.

Could this lead to "water wars"?

Experts have warned that the dam could exacerbate tensions between the two countries. Genevieve Donnellon-May, a geopolitical strategist, highlighted in AsiaGlobal Online that such projects could sow the seeds of "water wars." The ability to control water flow gives China significant leverage, including the possibility of releasing large volumes of water to flood border areas during conflicts.

India's countermeasure

In retaliation, India is building its dam across the Brahmaputra river in Arunachal Pradesh to safeguard itself from threats. During recent talks with India's National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, the two have agreed to share data to clear up concerns on water management.

This can make the project increase India and China's geopolitical rivalry with each other. If water was not an issue on a larger scale, from an environmental and logistical viewpoint, the Tibet dam really shows that there is much at stake in South Asia.