A global study published in The Lancet journal predicts that by 2050, India could have over 440 million people who are overweight or obese.

The research estimates that by mid-century, India may have 218 million overweight or obese men and 231 million women, making it the second-highest in the world after China. The United States, Brazil, and Nigeria are expected to rank third, fourth, and fifth, respectively.

Researchers, including experts from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), worked together for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 to study obesity trends worldwide. According to the study, in 2021, nearly half of the world's adults, around 1 billion men and over 1 billion women aged 25 years and older, were overweight or obese. In India, this number was about 180 million men and 98 million women.

By 2050, the number of overweight and obese people worldwide could reach 3.8 billion-1.8 billion men and 1.9 billion women, which would be more than half of the global adult population, the study says.

The report states that China, India, and the USA will continue to have the highest number of overweight and obese people. However, the biggest increase is expected in sub-Saharan Africa, where cases may rise by over 250%. The study also predicts that by 2050, 16 million boys and 14 million girls in India (aged 5-14 years) could be overweight or obese, making India the second-highest in the world after China.

By 2050, India is expected to have the highest number of overweight and obese people in the 15-24 age group worldwide. The study predicts that over 22 million men and nearly 17 million women in this age group could be affected by this health crisis.

Lead author Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, US, called the rise in obesity an "unprecedented global epidemic" and a "monumental societal failure."

She emphasized that this study, which is the most detailed global analysis so far, can help governments and health experts focus on the most affected groups. She added that while some people already require treatment, others who are just overweight should be targeted with prevention strategies to stop them from developing obesity.

The latest obesity estimates come after Prime Minister Narendra Modi focused on the need to fight obesity for a healthier India in his 'Mann Ki Baat' radio address on February 23. Obesity, defined as having a body mass index (BMI) over 30, increases the risk of serious health issues such as heart disease, diabetes, bone problems, fertility issues, and even cancer. 

However, experts argue that BMI alone is not a reliable measure of obesity. In January, a report in The Lancet said, using waist size and waist-to-hip ratio along with BMI for a more accurate diagnosis. Researchers proposed two new categories: Clinical obesity, where excess weight has already caused organ damage or illness, and Pre-clinical obesity, where a person is overweight and at risk of future health problems but is not yet sick. These changes could help doctors diagnose and treat obesity more effectively, preventing long-term health complications.

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