The Indian economy is predicted to grow at an average of 6.7% between fiscal years 2025 and 2031, according to a report by the rating agency CRISIL. India's economy is expected to grow to $7 trillion by 2031. This growth rate is similar to the 6.6% growth India had before the pandemic. The report says this increase will happen because of more spending on development projects (capex) and better efficiency in how things are done.

For this financial year, CRISIL predicts that India’s economy will grow by 6.8%. However, high loan interest rates and strict borrowing rules may reduce spending in cities. The report also says that the government’s plan to manage its budget better might lower how much it directly helps the economy grow.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, is predicted to drop from 5.4% last year to 4.5% in 2024–2025. This drop is mainly due to lower food prices. However, factors like bad weather and global political problems could still affect these predictions.

"Although kharif sowing is higher this year, the impact of excess and unseasonal rains needs to be ascertained. An adverse weather event through the rest of this fiscal remains a constant risk to food inflation and agriculture income," the report states. Additionally, geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains, increase oil prices, and push input costs higher.

Exports and manufacturing strengthen India’s trade figures

India's current account deficit, which shows the difference between what the country earns and spends in trade and services, is expected to stay manageable. Strong service exports and money sent home by Indians living abroad will help keep it under control. However, it may increase a little to 1% of the country's GDP in 2024–25, compared to 0.7% in 2023–24.

Recent data from the Commerce and Industry Ministry shows that India's exports of goods increased by 17.25% in October 2024. The total value of exports reached $39.20 billion, compared to $33.43 billion in October 2023. This growth was mainly due to higher exports of engineering goods, electronics, chemicals, and textiles, highlighting the strong performance of India's manufacturing sector.

In October 2024, India’s total exports, including goods and services, were estimated at $73.21 billion. This is a 19.08% increase compared to October 2023. During the same time, imports also increased by 7.77%, reaching $83.33 billion.