India Ratings, the Indian arm of global rating agency Fitch, on Thursday slashed India’s growth projection to 9.4% in 2021-22 from its earlier estimate of 9.6%, saying that despite having a strong recovery after the second Covid-19 wave, the aim of vaccinating the entire adult population by year-end would not be met.

The revision in the forecast has been done looking at the slow pace of vaccination in the country, said the global rating agency. “Going by the pace of vaccination, it is now almost certain that India will not be able to vaccinate its entire adult population by 31 December 2021,” Principal Economist Sunil Kumar Sinha said.

According to the agency’s estimates, around 5.2 million doses have to be administered from August 18, 2021 to vaccinate more than 88 percent of the adult population by year-end as well as to administer single doses to the rest by March 31, 2021.

"Unlike the first wave, which was largely an urban phenomenon, the second wave spread to rural areas as well. Even if the agricultural output/income remains intact in view of the progress of monsoon so far, rural households are unlikely to loosen their purse strings in view of a likely rise in health expenditure as also the uncertainty/insecurity associated with the likely future waves of COVID-19," Sinha added. 

Interestingly, India has been breaking its own records by administering highest ever Covid-19 vaccines in a single day. On Tuesday, India administered more than 88.13 lakh doses in 24 hours - the highest daily jabs since vaccinations began in January, and breaking the previous record of 86.16 lakh doses on 21 June this year. 

While the vaccination drive has gained momentum and the government remains positive to vaccinate its entire adult population by year end, the current pace makes it seem impossible to achieve.

In June, Fitch had said, “If India is able to vaccinate its entire adult population by 31 December 2021, then the GDP growth is expected to come in at 9.6% in 2021-22, otherwise it may slip to 9.1%.”

Sinha added that India will witness a K-shaped recovery and not a V-shaped one, with the poorer sections bearing the brunt even as there is an overall recovery in the economy, benefitting mainly the rich. 

Since the beginning of the vaccination drive since 16th January this year, India has administered more than 55.47 crore doses with some 440 million people have received the first dose and another 125 million or so have received both doses so far.