The Kerala model was hailed by the commie government on its efficiency to stop the spread of the infection in the first wave of the covid, while constantly criticizing the centre govt on the management of the crisis. Whether it was Kumbh or the Bengal election. The Pinarayi govt didn’t miss any chance to attack the Modi govt. Well, their words are coming to bite them as about 3 quarter of total cases were reported from Kerala yesterday. There are many contributing factors. Lack of medical infrastructure, the behaviour of the people and the physiological aspect.

Contributing to over three-quarters of covid cases in the country, the state has also a very high number of breakthrough cases. According to the latest report from the Union health ministry, 46% of the 87,000 breakthrough cases reported are from Kerala, which tops the national average in vaccination. That means around 40,000 infections were reported from the state. Breakthrough infections are defined as fresh infections in fully vaccinated people.

Madhya Pradesh has the highest seroprevalence or the presence of antibodies to the novel coronavirus, and Kerala the lowest among 21 States studied, according to the Indian Council of Medical Research’s (ICMR) fourth national serology survey. Though headline results of the survey were published last week, the State-wise approximate prevalence was issued on Wednesday.

Kerala, which is recording the sharpest rise in cases in the country fuelled by the Delta variant, had a seroprevalence of only 44% implying 56% lacked antibodies — and consequently — remained vulnerable to the infection. The antibody levels reported State-wise as part of the ICMR survey didn’t distinguish between those in response to natural infection or through vaccination.

The alarmingly high rate of breakthrough infections has raised concerns among the public on the efficacy of vaccines, especially when the festive season is expected to increase the spread of the disease. Doubts about the presence of any fresh mutant of the virus in the state have been rejected by health experts, saying the proportion of breakthrough infections are within expected lines. They also vouched for the effectiveness of vaccines as the lone tool in controlling hospitalisation and preventing deaths.

The Union health ministry report reveals that breakthrough infections have been noticed in Wayanad, which became the first district to administer at least one dose of vaccine to all eligible persons, and Pathanamthitta where the coverage is better than the state average with over 75% given the first dose. Earlier this month, the concern over breakthrough infection was brought to the fore through a central delegation report that stated Pathanamthitta reported more than 7,000 cases by July end.

A section of health department officials expressed disbelief at the high figure. An officer with the department said the numbers were exaggerated and the number of breakthrough infections reported so far could be less than 7,000. However, health experts said it was quite possible to have over 40,000 breakthrough infections in a state with high vaccination coverage and low immunity against the infection.

“It is quite natural that a high number of breakthrough infections are reported. The vaccines continue to show efficacy between 70 to 75%. That means not all will get protected against the infection. But the vaccines invariably are still good at saving lives,” said Dr Padmanabha Shenoy, immunologist and public health analyst.

He had analysed the breakthrough infections in Pathanamthitta and found that there were over 5,000 breakthrough infections in the district by mid-July and that it has helped reduce hospitalisation and deaths. A large number of breakthrough infections in the state gave rise to questions on virus mutations that managed to escape the immunity offered by vaccines. However, the genetic studies conducted on the samples of breakthrough infections did not find such a possibility. Health experts have also tried to explain why the new positives and breakthrough infections remained high in Kerala when compared to other states.

“Breakthrough infections are a small percentage of the total infection. The breakthrough infection we see in Kerala is similar to those reported in countries with good healthcare systems in place. The new variants have helped the virus to spread even in fully vaccinated people. But it couldn’t reduce the efficiency of the vaccine in preventing severity and deaths due to infection,” said Dr Anish T S, a member of the Covid management committee and an assistant professor at the department of community medicine, Government Medical College Hospital, Thiruvananthapuram.

The nodal officer for Covid and H1N1, Dr Amar Fettle, said breakthrough infections have been reported in almost all viral diseases reported so far. “One can still get tuberculosis after taking the BCG vaccine, measles after taking the measles vaccine. There is no vaccine that offers 100% protection against disease. So one should not have unrealistic expectations from vaccines and lower the guard even after vaccination,” he said.